Enhanced Prediction – Technical Overview

Enhanced Prediction is an advanced option that improves the accuracy of aircraft transit detection by forecasting flight paths instead of checking only current positions.

How It Works

Analyzes aircraft heading, ground speed, and vertical speed to project future positions.
Integrates with your selected Prediction Mode (5 to 60 seconds) to simulate forward motion.
Ignores aircraft that are not on a vector intersecting the Sun or Moon.
Minimizes false positives from nearby, but off-path, aircraft.

Default vs Enhanced Prediction

Default Mode checks whether an aircraft’s current position falls within the detection zone around the Sun or Moon — like freezing time and taking a snapshot.

Enhanced Prediction estimates where the aircraft will be in the next few seconds, based on its velocity and heading — like previewing the next few frames in a video.

Example 1 – Default Mode (Position-Based)

An aircraft is flying toward the Sun, but hasn’t entered the detection circle yet. Default mode will ignore it because it only checks the current position.

Example 2 – Enhanced Prediction (Trajectory-Based)

That same aircraft is still outside the circle now, but its speed and angle show that it will cross the Sun in 10 seconds. Enhanced Prediction catches this early and flags it as a likely transit.

Tip: Default mode is typically effective for horizontal passes. Enhanced Prediction is strongly recommended for vertical or overhead passes where position alone doesn't indicate future alignment.

When to Use Enhanced Prediction

Use it when:
- You want to detect only relevant and high-likelihood transit events.
- You're trying to avoid false positives from near-misses.
- You care about photographic precision.
Consider turning it off if:
- You're debugging, testing, or trying to capture all possible close encounters.
- You are tracking very low, slow, or hovering craft (e.g., helicopters) where heading data may be inconsistent.
- You're interested in broad coverage, including near misses and grazing paths.

What Else Gets Enabled

When Enhanced Prediction is enabled, the following features are also activated automatically to support better accuracy:

Use 3D Heading: Projects aircraft movement using full heading and climb/descent angle to get a true trajectory vector.
Use Zenith Logic: Helps when the Sun or Moon is directly overhead, where azimuth becomes less meaningful. This avoids misclassifying vertical or spiraling passes.
Use Dynamic Detection Margin: Adjusts detection width slightly based on aircraft altitude to better match visual footprint and transit likelihood.